Friday, July 5, 2019

NOAA/NWS/USAF Meteorologist David Dilley #1 Forecaster Says 1200 Years of Natural Warming/Cooling Cycles Define Epic Weather 2020-2070

no matter what you believe, this guys credentials, logic and transparent methodology are worth a review, forces 'think outside the group-think box' and his 'natural cycles' focus is banned at universities, his work blacklisted for grants (see below).

observation:
  • global warming, climate change and global cooling are real, normal and natural cycles repeating 6x in last 1200 years, unrelated to man burning fossil fuels.
  • with every grand solar minimum and global cooling cycle come come large earthquakes and major volcanic eruptions, both can be accurately predicted, lead to crop failure and disrupt fuel/commerce thus lead to skyrocketing food prices, famine, disease, upheaval/unrest, police crackdowns/war. 
  • nature has many cycles within other cycles, some with countering forces playing on each other that can counterbalance each other, incl hot/cold trends, magnetic pole vs other gravitational forces, co2 good/bad for ecosystem, so evaluating all natural cycles seems prudent.
  • more climate scientists should rely on natural climate cycles analysis of the 240, 72-, 18-, 9- and 4-year cycles across 120,000 years vs alarmist models that are limited to the last 50 years and omit/ignore the role of water, sun and moon in their blame-humans fear-mongering doomsday models and falsely claim that their one-sided narrative is settled science fabricating a "97% agreement" statistic.
  • volcanic/seismic events and crop failure/famine/unrest due to nature's reoccurring cold cycle is normal, not man-made or unusual. 

takeaway (from cited sources):

David Dilley, former meteorologist for the U.S. Air Force, and 20-year veteran "senior forecaster" with NOAA and the National Weather Service, he is ranked #1 in accurate extreme weather forecasts and he makes predictions 4 years in advance...
  • Our prediction model is called "Climate Pulse Technology," and it tracks historical cycles from 450,000 years before present. The model looks at climate cycles ranging from 120,000 years all the way down to 240 years, 72-, 18-, 9- and 4-year cycles.  https://www.globalweatheroscillations.com/earths-climate-pulse
  • Most weather and climate we experience on earth are cyclical in nature, driven by 'Natural PFM [Primary Forcing Mechanism]' cycles
  • PFM Natural Pulse cycles are linked to the beginning and ending of all 6 global warming/cooling cycles of the past 1200 years.   the strong pulses cause cyclical bulging of earth's atmosphere, a plunger effect on oceans, stress on earth's mantle, plates and crust.   
  • Global warming cycles occur about every 220 years, and each cycle has two very warm decadal periods separated by about 70-years of colder weather. This has occurred repeatedly during all six global warming cycles since the year 800 A.D. 
  • 1996-2014 was an 18 year global warming 'temperature pause' and now we're in a rapid global cooling cycle aka 'climate change'.  extended droughts and arctic blasts are all explained with the study of natural cycles and 'phenomena' we see is actually 'normal'.
  • the ice age is 30,000 years away, but we're in a risky "cold" cycle 2020-2070, crop-kill cold 2025-2065, the next 'warming' is 150 years out.
  • global warming is good for entire ecosystem, cooling is dangerous.  dangerous climate change will occur 2020 to 2050.
  • all 6 global warming cycles of last 1200 years shifted rapidly into global cooling, due to gravitational forces, seismic/volcanic events.
  • 1815 volcanic/cooling, 1816 was year of no summer, crop failures in europe/china, in the following years 33% europe died due to related famine/plague/unrest
  • when the moon aligns you get up to 47% increase in gravitation tug on earth and you get coastal flooding on full/new moons
  • cooling started 4 years ago (2013) and will ramp in two years (2019)
  • volcano eruptions and global cooling shrink crops whereas warming increases crop yields
  • we're starting to get into the 1960s temperature cycles; around 2020 we will start the real 'global cooling'
  • what we have today is not as warm as 1000 years ago, what we have today is "normal for this cycle".
  • how long will it last?  worst part from the late 2020s to 2040s/50s. they tend to bottom out in 40-50 years before they recover.
  • it'll be cold like 1950s/60s or even as cold as 1850-1900s, but not a mini ice age like 1400s 1600s, more like 1950s.
  • we will see navigation issues in icy great lakes
  • epic hurricanes are cyclical.  our hurricane forecasts have been 100% accurate 10-years in a row, using our global weather oscillations climate pulse technology and cyclical data. others incl nasa/noaa have been correct only 30-40% yet they get the headlines.
  • 1860-2017 US hurricane cycles, notice big uptick every 70 years: 1871-1901, 1931-1951, 2010-2030.
     
  • the grant system is driven by alarmist manmade GW agenda, and real scientists get blacklisted.  scientist/researchers are not allowed to speak about 'natural cycles' at most universities, robs a generation of scientific mentorship, healthy debate and contrarian diversity.
  • 800-1100AD was much warmer than today and we had 50% less ice in arctic than today
  • plunger effect caused by moon, creates high and low tide in oceans, full and new moon creating ocean bulge, plunger effect 2x/day due to moon and gravitational cycles, but also larger 9 year cycle plunges
  • warm water can get plunged into arctic, which melts floating ice sheet from the bottom up


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WaU_NJfKOEMeteorologist David Dilley breaks down why 'Climate Change' means "Global Cooling" [now mirrored] - 47mIce Age FarmerPublished on Oct 7, 2017
the great temperature pause 2013-2015 (at which time, the climate cycle reversed). 2:13 the big pause no warming for 18 years (1996-2014). then the 2016 reversal aka rapid global cooling cycle began. 4:40 the temp goes up first, followed by co2, the rise in co2 is just a byproduct. 6:20 7000 years ago, at the last global warming peak, we had 50% of the ice we have today. 10:30 milankovitch cycles account for how earth orbits around sun, every 120,000 years earth swings closest to the sun. 17:00 moon pulls on earth causes a bulge at its middle, acts like a plunger on the oceans as it orbits the earth, arctic warm water pulse every 72 years (9 yr pulses), warm water surge/pulse of 1990 took 13 years to mix and exit, 9 years later other warm water surge/pulses: 1990/1999/2008. 18:18 ice in the arctic melts from the bottom up, not from the top down. 22:30 the arctic and antarctic are both having record ice extent growth. more ice more cold air available 'icebox'. 25:25 everyone thinks drought and heat must be global warming, but storms move along jet streams, and warm air has been pulled up into alaska area keeping the west coast in a cyclical 26 year california drought, meanwhile it cools down the arctic, builds more ice in arctic, more cold air and polar vortexes, you get extended drought in the west and very cold weather in the east. 31:20 biggest science scandal ever: mucking with estimated temperature data. 39:00 97% consensus by all scientists is ' a bogus number' says lead author for IPCC dr. richard tol. 41:15 global cooling is dangerous, not warming. 41:25 6 global warming cycles in last 1200 years rapidly shifted into global cooling, caused by gravitational-like forces thus seismic/volcanic events. 43:10 1815 volcanic/cooling, 1816 year of no summer, crop failures in europe/china, following years 33% europe died due to famine/plague/unrest. any of three volcanic faults could blow anytime during global cooling cycle. 
'Is Climate Change Dangerous?' presentation by former NOAA meteorologist David Dilley, walking through the major climatic cycles and their Solar origins.
NOTE that I have mirrored this presentation on DTube, where it CANNOT be censored, so make note of this address: https://dtube.video/#!/v/iceagefarmer... 
David Dilley, former NOAA Meteorologist and current CEO and senior research scientist - Global Weather Oscillations, Inc., gives a presentation on Mind Your Own Business TV with Debi Davis. Mr. Dilley provides the viewer a full picture and understanding of climate change cycles and carbon dioxide cycles. Mr. Dilley combines his own research with peer reviewed research from other scientists and applies it to what is happening today, and to the likely dangerous climate change that will occur between the years 2019 to 2050. David Dilley is currently the President and Chief Research Scientist of Global Weather Oscillations, Inc. (GWO), which he formed in 1992. According to its website, Global Weather Oscillations was founded "with the clear understanding that most weather and climate we experience on earth are cyclical in nature, and driven by this 'Natural PFM [Primary Forcing Mechanism]' cycles." At GWO, David Dilley "performs ongoing climate cycle research," and "develops specific climate cycle models for generation of climate/weather predictions years into the future."  
Prior to the founding of GWO, David Dilley worked as a meteorologist for the U.S. Air Force, then as a "senior forecaster" with NOAA and the National Weather Service.  
"For over 15 years an inordinate proportion of government and corporate research grants have been awarded to universities for a single specific purpose: to prove human activities and the burning of fossil fuels are the main driving mechanisms causing global warming." 
"Unfortunately agendas by strong arm politics and the suppression of contrary views have become the primary tools used to manipulate the media, local and state governments (and in turn the general public) into believing what they want us to believe." 
"The politically driven United Nations IPCC and United States global warming ruse will likely end up being one of the greatest scandals of the 21st century." 

David Dilley: Definitive Dates for the Onset of Major Global Cooling (Part 1 of 2) - 34m
Adapt 2030
Published on Oct 31, 2017

3:20 when the moon aligns you get up to 47% increase in gravitation tug on earth and you get coastal flooding on full/new moons. 10:30 california earthquake cycles, come after the cycles relax post bulging, backside of peak. 14:45 cooling started 4 years ago (2013) and will ramp in two years (2019). 16:38 volcano erupt and global cooling shrinks crops whereas warming increases crop yields. 19:45 food shortage and resulting wars for food to survive, those in the north might need to strong-arm 'secure' it from others who can't adequately resist/defend themselves, all nations fending for themselves first. 22:10 arctic warm water pulse in 1990, 1999, 2008 (9 years apart). 24:00 the ice melts from the bottom up. 28:00 we're starting to get into the 1960s temperature cycles. 28:20 around 2019/2020 we will start the real 'global cooling'. 33:00 what we have today is not as warm as 1000 years ago, what we have today is "normal for this cycle". [continued below]
 
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A6eokQlTbSs
David Dilley: Definitive Dates for the Onset of Major Global Cooling (Part 2 of 2) - 34m
Adapt 2030
Published on Oct 31, 2017

graphic: 230 year cycles, 72 year peaks. 0:25 what we have today is not as warm as 1000 years ago, what we have today is "normal for this cycle". 1:05 we had a GW cycle back in 800 AD, and 950-1050 AD when vikings settled greenland, then had to leave 1100 AD as it slipped into global cooling cycle.  

3:30 how long will it last? worst part from the late 2020s to 2040s/50s. they tend to bottom out in 40-50 years before it recovers. 6:05 it'll be cold like 1950s/60s or even as cold as 1850-1900s, but not a mini ice age like 1400s 1600s, more like 1950s. 8:25 we will see navigation issues in icy great lakes. 12:20 epic hurricanes are cyclical. we can track hurricanes through time. 13:45 our hurricane forecasts have been 100% accurate 10-years in a row, using our global weather oscillations climate pulse technology and cyclical data. others have been correct 30-40% but they get the headlines. movie 'climate hustle'. 19:45 sine wave diagram of longterm history. 20:55 you cant get a grant to study natural cycles because the state/universities can only study human-induced global warming. 21:40 i was to talk at an institute in maine and 3 days before talk, they canceled because 'natural cycles' made audience uncomfortable.
23:30 interviewer: your pre-season hurricane forecasts were accurate, yet you get no press compared to natl hurricane center or colorado state when they're pre-season forecasts are incorrect 3-4 years of last 10.   

25:00 earth's 'natural climate pulse' based on peer reviewed climate research by david dilley. 25:15 hurricane center's may pre-season forecasts are correct 3 of 10x in 10 years. not reliable at all. 27:00 they're doing this alice in wonderland data manipulation to fit the headline agenda narrative. 28:45 noaa scandals aside, the media do not do own research anymore to validate, they accept official data as fact. 32:00 we need to get the word out on 'natural cycles'.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iUlZ_IhEG_4 
David Dilley on Natural Climate Cycles w Grand Solar Minimum Channel  57m
Grand Solar Minimum GSM News
Published on Feb 3, 2018 

1:00 re natural cycles, the alarmists only go back 50 years (exclude nature's cycles refuse to discuss/learn or respect). 3:30 weather channel clearly pushes global warming. 3:50 1860-2017 US hurricane cycles, notice big uptick every 70 years 1871-1901, 1931-1951, 2010-2030. 4:55 because i study natural cycles is why i'm ranked #1 in hurricane prediction.
6:05 american meteorological society is like AMA for doctors, they shut me down, as did university of maine, an associate doing similar got shutdown at uc berkeley. 9:00 uo maine has climate division who will shutdown anything re 'natural cycles' as that threatens their grants, manmade GW alarmism is driven by the grant system is driven by alarmist manmade GW agenda, and blacklists real scientists. 11:50 scientist/researchers are not allowed to speak about 'natural cycles' at most university. 13:40 a new resource of papers found at notrickszone.com. 15:25 arctic mid canada has really cooled down. alaska is really cooling. 16:00 oceans have big lag time, it takes time to cool the oceans after global warming cycles. dr. roy spencer tracks temperature anomaly in troposhere, shows drop .62C in two years, he's more a cycles guy too. 19:00 the ice age is 30,000 years away, but we'll get gradually cooler on every GW cycle which itself will cool too. 19:20 800-1100AD was much warmer than today and we had 50% less ice in arctic than today. they're uncovering artifacts now from ice melt proving they had to get there during a thaw. 25:00 eliptical path around the sun takes 120,000 years causing the ice age and warmer cycles. 26:30 plunger effect caused by moon, creates high and low tide in oceans, full and new moon creating ocean bulge on mid-earth, plunger effect 2x/day due to moon and gravitational cycles, but also larger 9 year cycle plunges. warm water can get plunged into arctic, which melts floating ice sheet from bottom up. 

30:30  about cosmic rays, jasper kirkby and cloud project.  globalweathercycles.com > earthquake > dynamics:  refers to mantle in relation to external cosmic geomagnetic interactions with core mantle.  its one reason the moon has greater effect to study.  34:20  major cooling cycle coming, the coldest approx. 2025-2065 with a warming cycle 150 years out.  15-25 years into the cooling cycle, the gravitational pull causes a bulge in the mantle leading to large volcanic activity further into global cooling.   37:10  1816 was year of no summer in europe, famine, blight, and resultant civil unrest killed 1/3 of europe over 30 years in global cooling cycle.  interruption in food chain will cause unrest.   41:20  many speak of an ice age quote the malenkovich theory.   an ice age lasts 70,000 years and its 30,000 years away.  its just a cooling cycle within bigger cycles and in 150 years we will return to a warming cycle again.  43:20  solar wind pressure has declined 30% in a type of 'shutdown'.  44:40  we had a mini ice age in the 1500s, very cold, they are saying a mini ice age. 49:00  2020-2025 are we going to have a VMI 5 and 6 volcanos in addition to major quakes? 
https://www.ocala.com/opinion/20180121/david-dilley-is-cold-snap-freak-of-nature-or-natural-cycle
David Dilley: Is cold snap freak of nature or natural cycle?Posted Jan 21, 2018

The January 2018 cold snap caused much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation to shiver with the coldest temperatures since the early 1990s.

A couple research groups stated that "the cold snap was a rarity that occurs only once every 250 years — and bucks the warming trend." The same team likewise connected Hurricane Harvey to global warming. The co-author of the research, Gabriel Vecchi of Princeton University, also added that "it was definitely strange — especially now and things are becoming stranger."

But was this a "freak of nature," as stated by researcher Claudia Tebaldi of the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the private organization Climate Central? Or, is it misguided politically correct manipulation of data by the federal grant system and private interest money?

My job at Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) is to research and predict climate/weather cycles based on natural cycles. The prediction model that I have developed considers natural forcing mechanisms of the earth-moon-sun. Our prediction model is called "Climate Pulse Technology," and it tracks historical cycles from 450,000 years before present. The model looks at climate cycles ranging from 120,000 years all the way down to 240 years, 72-, 18-, 9- and 4-year cycles. Our Climate Pulse Technology Model can track specific events occurring on specific points on the cycles — then track the historical events through time and into the future.

When I talk about misguided research, I am talking about tunnel vision that only looks at a very small snippet of the past or climate forcing mechanisms. So yes, I am still puzzled how several research groups could possibly conclude that this cold snap was a 250-year freak cycle.

When I was the meteorologist-in-charge at the Trenton National Weather Service Office back in the 1970s, NOAA again made a slip concerning cycles. Trenton had a flood in the early '70s and NOAA came out and said it was a 100-year flood.

Well, just a few years later it occurred again. So, was it a 100-year flood or a 20-year flood?

Now for the freak 250 cycle cited by the researchers — and cycles in general. Again, I am really puzzled by their conclusion. Global warming cycles occur about every 220 years, and each cycle has two very warm decadal periods separated by about 70-years of colder weather. This has occurred repeatedly during all six global warming cycles since the year 800 A.D. The current global warming cycle saw its first decadal warmth from 1930 to 1940, and the second decadal warm period occurred from about 2000 to 2015. Sandwiched between the two very warm decadal periods is a much colder climate associated with the Natural Climate Pulse 72-year cycle. Remember the shivering you and your parents experienced during the 1940s to the 1980s? It is back — and we must adjust for the next 70 years or more.

Now, back to the "freak 250-year cycle" that the researchers cited. Is it really that cold, or even a 250-year cycle? Although some areas of the country broke records with the January cold snap, it was not even close to a 250-year cycle. Back in 1981 temperatures plummeted to 11 degrees here in Ocala, and close to that in 1982 and 1987. Most orange trees in Central Florida were killed, and this also occurred in the late 1890s to 1903. If it was that cold in Florida, then it had to be much colder to the north. And growing up in Vermont during the 1950s and 1960s, it was very cold — very much like their "freak 250-year cycle."

So was our cold snap in early January 2018 a "250-year Freak Cycle," or just the norm that we will be seeing every few years as we slide into the newest Global Cooling Cycle?

And now last, but not least, here at GWO I use our Climate Pulse Technology to track historical hurricanes from the 1800s up to present and into the future. I have found that hurricane landfalls and their strengths are cyclical — independent from global warming.

Our hurricane predictions for 2017 tracked a very strong cycle associated with strong hurricanes that occurred in the 1940s. By using the Climate Pulse Model, I predicted a return of volatile hurricane landfalls in 2017. My press release in February 2017 warned everyone about the expected destructive hurricane season. In the release, I predicted there would be a major impact hurricane landfalling on the south tip of the Florida Peninsula (Category 4/Hurricane Irma), and that Texas would break out of their eight-year hurricane drought with a landfalling hurricane just north of Corpus Christi, Texas. Was the strength of Harvey and Irma influenced by global warming? No. It was just the return of a 40- to 70-year natural cycle which produced major impact hurricanes in the 1940s.

And, yes, 2018 will be as destructive, or more destructive, than the 2017 hurricane season.

-- CRITICS of Dilley's Work
https://www.quora.com/Could-anyone-debunk-this-video-from-David-Dilley-about-the-IPCC-and-NOAA-fiddling-with-scientific-data
Could anyone debunk this video from David Dilley about the IPCC and NOAA fiddling with scientific data?
https://www.quora.com/Can-someone-debunk-David-Dilley-s-video-on-YouTube
Can someone debunk David Dilley's video on YouTube?


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